Strength of Schedule: Fantasy Football Players with Favorable Early Season Matchups

At 4for4, we take fantasy football strength of schedule to the next level with our signature metric, schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA. By removing schedule bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner.

Making informed decisions on who to draft at ADP can come down to several factors, but for this article, we’ll highlight players who have an easier start to the season. By ensuring a solid start to the year, we can vastly increase our odds of making it to the fantasy promised land: the playoffs.

In a league where six teams out of 12 make the playoffs, there’s a 92% chance of making the playoffs if you start 4-0; conversely, if you start 0-4, your odds are 9%.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (Yahoo ADP: 105.3)

Jared Goff has a ton of talented weapons and is fairly inexpensive. Goff was the QB7 in overall fantasy points last season and has a pretty sweet schedule to start off 2024. The Lions have an early bye in Week 5 but start out with the Rams, Buccaneers, and Cardinals, who were 28th, 29th, and 23rd, respectively, in QB aFPA last year.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (Yahoo ADP: 121.8)

With Nick Chubb set to start the season on the PUP list and miss the first four games (at minimum), it’s presumed that Jerome Ford will be RB1 to start the Browns’ season. He was the RB17 in half-PPR scoring last season, and as the starter from Weeks 3-17, he averaged a respectable 14.9 touches per game, which translated to 933 all-purpose yards.

The Browns have a beautiful early season RB schedule with just one opponent out of their first five ranking above 25th in RB aFPA in 2023, including the Commanders, who were dead last in that category. Ford’s Week 1-5 opponents surrendered an average of 22.3 half-PPR points per contest to enemy backs. If he can fend off D’Onta Foreman for the lead role, the 24-year-old has fantasy RB2 upside for the current price of an RB4 (RB37).

Chicago Bears WRs

Chicago Bears WRs have a favorable early season schedule with four of their first five opponents ranking 24th or worse in WR aFPA in 2023. The lone exception is the Texans, who were 19th in WR aFPA last season.